Northern Red Oak Climate Change Analysis
Authored by: Christina Kieffer
The effects of climate change have been and will continue to impact the earth’s ecosystems globally if we do not reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Some species will be impacted more so than others such as sessile species. Tree species in North Aerica are considered to be vulnerable to climate change (Etterson et al, 2020). Species response to climate change, such as the movement or migration to more suitable habitats or adaptations to new environments requires time. The rate of climate change supersedes natural adaptation and migration rates (Knott et al., 2022).
Northern red oak (Quercus rubra) like many other tree species, will most definitely be negatively affected by current and future climate change. One concern is if current species’ ranges will continue to be suitable habitat in the future. Iverson et al., 2007’s study has shown that northern red oak’s (NRO) range will indeed shift. In the study they used the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GRDL) to determine NRO’s range shift by 2100. They also looked at both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The current range of NRO is shown in figure 1. Figure 2 shows NRO range shift using the GRDL model under low (RCP 4.5) emissions. In the figure, we can see there will be areas that will no longer be suitable habitat for NRO.
In addition to evaluating the impacts of climate change on specie range shifts, it is also pertinent to consider other impacts to the success of the species. Forest fires can have both a negative and positive impact of tress. As NRO is adapted to periodic fire, it is not as well adapted as other species. However, without fire NRO will be out competed by other tree species. Knowing this, finding a balance with the number of fires and their frequency is important especially in conjunction with other symptoms of climate change. This includes increases in areas that will experience drought which will impact fire intensity and frequency. In figure 4 shows the current NRO species range with the number of fires between 1992 and 2020. The darker orange indicates higher number of fires over the 28-year period. Figure 5 and 6 show the same fire data for the 28-year period for the future NRO range under low and high emissions respectively. The darker areas will undoubtedly be the areas of concern for NRO species decline (U.S. Department of Agriculture, n.d.).
In conclusion, in order to help reduce the impact of climate change and the compounding effects of fire, assisted migration could help sustain the NRO populations. Using tools like the Seedlot Selection Tool (https://seedlotselectiontool.org/sst/) can help determine what seed sources are best adapted to a specific area for future climate change. Assisted migration will undoubtedly be pivotal in preventing significant species decline of NRO and other North American tree species (Etterson et al., 2020).
References:
Etterson, J. R., Cornett, M. W., White, M. A., & Kavajecz, L. C. (2020). Assisted migration across fixed seed zones detects adaptation lags in two major North American tree species. Ecological Applications, 30(5), e02092.
Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A. M., Matthews, S. N., & Peters, M. (2008). Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios. Forest ecology and management, 254(3), 390-406.
Knott, J. A., Liang, L., Dukes, J. S., Swihart, R. K., & Fei, S. (2023). Phenological response to climate variation in a northern red oak plantation: Links to survival and productivity. Ecology, 104(3), e3940.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. (n.d.). Quercus rubra L. plant guide. https://plants.usda.gov/DocumentLibrary/plantguide/pdf/ pg_quru.pdf
Fire data from https://www.fs.usda.gov/rds/archive/catalog/RDS-2013-0009.6
Figure 1. Current range of northern red oak (Quercus rubra).
Figure 2. Predicted range shift of northern red oak in the Eastern U.S., using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory model, and under the emissions scenario of RCP 4.5. The current range of northern red oak is outlined for comparison.
Figure 3. Predicted range shift of northern red oak in the Eastern U.S., using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory model, and under the emissions scenario of RCP 8.5. The current range of northern red oak is outlined for comparison.
Figure 4. Number of fires within the current northern red oak range. Fire data is from 1992-2020.
Figure 5. Number of fires within the northern red oak range at low emissions (RCP 4.5). Fire data is from 1992-2020.
Figure 6. Number of fires within the northern red oak range at high emissions (RCP 8.5). Fire data is from 1992-2020.